The Palin Bounce
A lot of people are thrilled about the new Gallup numbers, showing McCain pulling ahead of Obama by three points. The Gallup numbers are not even "likely" voters - they're merely "registered" voters, a cohort that traditionally leans Democrat significantly more than actual Election Day voters. That means in all likelihood Obama is more than three points behind. Add in the Bradley/Wilder Effect, and it is entirely possible that Obama is eight or more points behind McCain.
My observation is that by breaking his pledge and opting out of public financing, Obama has made his ability to raise money a hostage to his poll performance. Fundraisers get paid back in favors - quid pro quo. If they no longer believe in the likelihood of an Obama Administration, they will forget about getting paid back and they'll walk away.
So how will Obama keep his campaign - fueled solely on optimism and abundant fundraising - running if the enthusiasm dries up? He'll have to rely on the audacity of hate, and if you've been following lefty blogs for the last week you're probably aware that the Democrats have that in abundance. We might see something much uglier than the 2000 Florida saga unfold.
Update: Among likely voters, Gallup says McCain-Palin now up by 10 points: 54 to 44. Wow.
